Exit scenario calculator

Calculate what your equity could be worth at exit

An exit can be one of the biggest financial events of your life. Taxes, dilution, exercise timing and grant type all change what you can make at an exit. Maeve models your actual scenario head of time — helps you make the right decisions with your equity before the moment arrives.

Calculate your exit

Can you calculate what my equity could be worth at exit?

Hi ! I'm Maeve, Secfi's AI equity assistant — here to help you make the most of your equity.

For context, here’s what I have for the current valuations for your company

You have 100,000 ISO options at a strike price of $2.43. What exit price per share would you like to model? You can give me one number, or a few scenarios (e.g., bear/base/bull case) and I'll run them all.

I think the company is likely to triple in the next 2 - 3 years from the current pref price.

Here’s a look at your potential exit at $26.94/share

Used by employees of some of the best companies

Exit looks different for everyone — here's what to know

What to know about different startup exit scenarios

A walkthrough of the four ways a private company typically exits — IPO, direct listing, SPAC, and acquisition — and what each path means for your stock options, including lock-ups, conversions, and when you can actually sell.

Read the full article

How to Calculate the Value of Your Startup Stock Options

A simple three-step method for estimating what your startup stock options could be worth: gather grant size, strike price, and fully diluted shares, then factor in exit value, dilution, exercise cost, and taxes so you can plan with realistic numbers.

Read the full article

Are my stock options worth it?

There is no one-size-fits all strategy, because what’s best for another person may not be what’s right for you and your specific financial situation.

Read the full article

Maeve can model your exit so you know what you'll take home.

Model out difference exit prices

Not sure when or at what price your company exits? Run multiple scenarios — $1B, $5B, $10B — and compare outcomes side by side. Maeve uses your actual grant data and tax profile so each scenario reflects your real situation, not a generic estimate.

Ask Maeve

What could my exit look like?

To model your exit scenarios, I need one key input from you: what exit price per share are you expecting? If you're not sure, I can suggest a range based on the current valuations— for example $71 (current preferred), $100, and $150 as conservative/likely/optimistic scenarios. Or you can give me your own number and I'll run the full analysis from there.

Let’s go with your recommendation.

Here's how your exit could look across three scenarios, based on your currently 59,790 exercisable options (across your three grants):

A few things worth noting:

Exercise cost of $300,235 is consistent across all scenarios — that's what you'd need out of pocket to exercise your currently vested shares.
California taxes are factored in, which are significant
These figures are based on your currently exercisable shares only — you have more vesting through 2030, which would increase your potential upside.

Would you like to explore what your exit could look like based on your total options amount, not just what has vested?

IPO vs. acquisition — see how each exit path affects your take-home

The path to exit changes everything — tax treatment, timing, and how much you actually take home can look very different depending on whether your company goes public or gets acquired. Maeve models both scenarios side by side using your actual grants, exercise status, and tax profile, so you can see what each outcome means for you specifically.

Ask Maeve

Can you model out how an IPO exit would look vs an acquisition exit for my company?

To model out IPO vs. acquisition exits, I need one key input from you: what exit price(s) are you expecting? If you're not sure, a common starting point is to use the preferred price of $71 as a baseline and work up from there. What numbers are you thinking?

I'd say we would look to IPO at about $100/share and in an acquisition we could expect a 20% premium on the current pref price.

Here’s your side-by-side exit comparison based on your vested options:

Give me a summary of how an IPO exit differs from an acquisition and how that can impact my net proceeds?

Here's a concise breakdown of how IPOs and acquisitions differ — and what that means for your equity specifically.

IPO (Initial Public Offering):

You control the timing (mostly). After a lockup period you can sell your shares.
Price can move.
Tax flexibility.
Upside potential as the stock could keep rising.

Acquisition:

Faster liquidity. Often within weeks or months of the deal closing.
Less control. The price is set by the deal terms.
Tax timing compressed.
Deal structure matters.

The biggest lever you have right now is exercise timing. Want me to model what exercising some of your options today would look like, and how that compares to waiting for one of these exit scenarios?

Here's what people are asking

Does exercise timing before an exit matter?

Yes — significantly. Exercising early can start your capital gains clock and reduce your tax rate at exit, but it involves upfront costs and risk. Maeve can model both scenarios so you can compare outcomes before committing.

What's the difference between ISOs and NSOs at an exit?

ISOs held long enough after exercise qualify for long-term capital gains rates. NSOs are taxed as ordinary income at exercise, regardless of how long you've held them. The difference can easily be worth tens of thousands of dollars depending on your grant size.

How does dilution affect what I receive at exit?

Each funding round your company raises typically issues new shares, reducing your ownership percentage. A smaller ownership stake means a smaller share of exit proceeds. However, if you're raising at a higher valuation then your company was previously at, your equity is still worth more then it previously was (even if you have an overall smaller share of the equity pie). Maeve accounts for this when running your model.

Why is my actual take-home less then I think?

Your proceeds are reduced by exercise costs, federal and state income taxes, and dilution from prior funding rounds. For employees who haven't yet exercised, the gap between headline value and net proceeds can be significant.

More complete than your colleague’s spreadsheet

Company news
409a valuation
Pref price
Additional market prices
Equity grant details
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Tax deductions
Risk profile
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Company news
409a valuation
Pref price
Additional market prices
Equity grant details
Vesting schedule
Tax filing status
Income streams
Tax deductions
Risk profile
Available liquidity
Company sentiment

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Secfi Wealth

Employee Benefits

Secfi Asset Management

Offerings

Resources

Newsletter

Calculate what your equity could be worth at exit

Exit looks different for everyone — here's what to know

What to know about different startup exit scenarios

How to Calculate the Value of Your Startup Stock Options

Are my stock options worth it?

Maeve can model your exit so you know what you'll take home.

Model out difference exit prices

IPO vs. acquisition — see how each exit path affects your take-home

Here's what people are asking

More complete than your colleague’s spreadsheet

Exit looks different for everyone — here's what to know

What to know about different startup exit scenarios

How to Calculate the Value of Your Startup Stock Options

Are my stock options worth it?

Maeve can model your exit so you know what you'll take home.

Model out difference exit prices

IPO vs. acquisition — see how each exit path affects your take-home

Here's what people are asking

More complete than your colleague’s spreadsheet

Secfi Liquidity

Secfi Wealth

Secfi Liquidity

Secfi Wealth

Employee Benefits

Secfi Asset Management

Offerings

Calculate

Insights

Resources

Newsletter

Secfi Liquidity

Secfi Wealth

Secfi Liquidity

Secfi Wealth

Employee Benefits

Secfi Asset Management

Offerings

Calculate

Insights

Resources

Newsletter

Exit looks different for everyone — here's what to know

What to know about different startup exit scenarios

How to Calculate the Value of Your Startup Stock Options

Are my stock options worth it?

Maeve can model your exit so you know what you'll take home.

Model out difference exit prices

IPO vs. acquisition — see how each exit path affects your take-home

Here's what people are asking

More complete than your colleague’s spreadsheet

Exit looks different for everyone — here's what to know

What to know about different startup exit scenarios

How to Calculate the Value of Your Startup Stock Options

Are my stock options worth it?

Maeve can model your exit so you know what you'll take home.

Model out difference exit prices

IPO vs. acquisition — see how each exit path affects your take-home

Here's what people are asking

More complete than your colleague’s spreadsheet