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✈️ What we're seeing in the IPO market

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I'm Jaime Moreno de los Rios, COO and Co-CIO at Secfi. I spend most of my days deep in conversations with founders, CFOs, bankers, and investors. Figuring out which company we might finance next, and helping employees and executives make the most of their private equity.


Right now, I’m flying over the Atlantic on my way to a wedding in Germany’s Black Forest, after six intense weeks of investor meetings, diligence calls, and conferences across the U.S.


Here’s what I’m seeing, and what you should be thinking about if you hold private equity.

🔥 The IPO market is ALIVE!

Over the past 3 months, we’ve seen a solid string of IPOs hit the market: Circle, Chime, CoreWeave, Etoro, Hinge Health, Mountain, Voyager. They didn’t just make it out, they worked. They traded up, held gains, and built momentum.


And now? Figma just filed.


One of the most anticipated tech IPOs in years isn’t sitting it out. Expect more to follow.


It feels like everyone who waited is trying to catch the wave. Companies that were quiet in Q1 are suddenly IPO-ready. S-1s are being dusted off, governance put together, analyst days rushed onto the calendar. There’s urgency. You can feel it.


“Companies are trying to do in 6 weeks what they didn’t do in 6 months.” – ECM Banker

🔓 IPO markets are open, but…do you have what it takes?

While the IPO market is heating up and companies are rushing, it’s also about what investors want. Jefferies ran a compelling investor survey recently, and the bar is high:

  • Deeper IPO discounts: 30-40% is the new normal amid macro uncertainty
  • $250M+ in forward revenue is the minimum for public market readiness
  • Balanced growth and margin: 30% growth / 10% margin is today’s investor favorite
  • Software and fintech expected to dominate 2025 IPOs
  • Anchor investors boost confidence, if they're the right ones

🧨 The market’s booming, but fragile

Investor demand is the strongest it’s been in 4 years. Hedge funds are leaning in. Crossovers are deploying. Everyone wants in.


But everyone also knows: this is fragile.

  • Inflation is still sticky
  • Tariff policy is unpredictable
  • Consumers are stretched
  • The Fed is still figuring out its path

“We’re all dancing, but keeping one eye on the exits.” – ECM Banker


All it takes is one bad CPI print or geopolitical headline and the window slams shut. That’s why things are moving so fast.

📉 The playbook: undercut valuation, let the stock rip

The days of pricing at sky-high private multiples are over. Companies (and investment Banks) are pricing at discounts, intentionally, to build demand and generate momentum.


“Undercut valuation, create FOMO, let the stock rip.” – ECM Banker


Circle, Chime, CoreWeave, they all priced ~30-40% below peer multiples. Investors piled in. Stocks popped, and they’re now ripping.


This works. But it means if you’re a founder or employee, your equity might get marked down, even if the IPO trades up. The pop is real, but it’s engineered.

🧭 What this means for you

If your company is IPO-bound, or might be, you don’t want to wait for the S-1 to drop before planning.

This is the time to:

  • Understand your stock option strategy. Unexercised ISOs may lose favorable treatment post-IPO. AMT and QSBS timelines matter.
  • Get clarity on tender offers. If your company runs one before going public, know how much liquidity to take, and how much equity to keep.
  • Explore early liquidity options. If you have meaningful equity and you’re confident in your company, you may not need to sell, there are smarter ways to access cash.

At Secfi, we’re helping hundreds of employees and execs navigate tenders, secondaries, and exercise financing during this market shift.

✨ A personal reflection

Flying gives me time to zoom out and reflect. Those of you who also have kids will understand why it happens during flights… ;)


In just six weeks, I’ve seen the IPO mood swing from cautious optimism to full-on sprint. And while that momentum is exciting, it’s also a little baffling.

The one thing I keep coming back to is this: those who are prepared, personally and financially, always navigate the shifts best.


Whether you're a CFO facing a near-term IPO or a staff engineer with expiring options, these next few months might define what you walk away with.


We’d love to be in your corner as you navigate it.


Safe travels,
Jaime

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